Connecting Businesses In the World Of Plastics
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2010 can simply be described as a year of recovery.
The World will see positive growth in GDP of over 2% in 2010.
Petrochemical industry has been shifting its base from the developed economies to Asia and the Middle East on account of cost economics and growing demand in Asia. Asian cracker and polymer capacities are coming up not only in China and India but also in Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. North America and Europe that have been exporters of petrochemicals and polymers are increasingly becoming net importers due to lack of new capacities and closure of old uneconomic size plants. Global polymer consumption in 2010 is expected to fare well due to better economic growth in the Asia Pacific region, estimated to grow by about 3.5-4% to reach a level of about 250 mln tons. The polymer market is increasingly shifting towards Asia on account of better economic growth and growing demand due to large population attaining better standard of living.
Along with a projected GDP growth of almost 9%, all major markets of polymers like packaging, consumer products, automotive, appliances have grown well in India in 2010. As a result, Indian polymer industry in 2010 is expected to perform quite well.
Polyethylene (PE), the largest polymer group may show overall growth of about 9% - LDPE is expected to grow very modestly mainly due to price delta between LDPE and LLDPE.
EVA could suffer mainly due to increased part replacement by polyolefin elastomers in the footwear market.
Polypropylene (PP) on the other hand is estimated to grow by about 20% due to excellent growth of over 20% in automotive sector and continued growth in packaging.
PVC consumption may see a somewhat lukewarm growth compared to 2009 (one of the best years for PVC in the last decade). PVC pipes may not grow well in 2010 compared to 2009 due to extended rainfall months that slowed down demand, amid significant curtailment of Government and private investments in infrastructure.
Polystyrene is also not expected to show good growth due to stiff competition from PP.
The performance of polymers in the last two quarters of FY 2010-11 is expected to be better due to better economic growth. Total polymer consumption in 2010 could exceed 9.5 mln tons. A clearer picture of actual consumption in 2010-2011 will emerge only at the end of financial year.
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