Asia Pacific region accounted for almost 44% of the global polyethylene demand in 2008, and is also the fastest growing polyethylene consuming region in the world as per globalmarketsdirect.com. The growth in the region was due to strong demand from China and India, where demand is propped by growth rates that are above the world average. Asia Pacific region accounted for almost 44% of the global capacity for polyethylene in 2008, and accounts for nearly 50% of the planned capacity additions until 2015. Asia Pacific region will have the maximum capacity additions of more than 12 mln tons during 2008-2015. In Asia Pacific region, China and India will account for more than 8 mln tons of future capacity additions. HDPE dominates the Asia Pacific polyethylene capacity with 48% of the installed capacity and 43% of the planned capacity additions, followed by LLDPE with 28% of the installed capacity and 51% of the planned capacity additions. In 2015, HDPE will account for 47%, LDPE 19% and LLDPE will account for 34% of the Asia Pacific installed capacity of 42 mln tons.
The largest market for polyethylene in South and Central America is Brazil, which accounted for 52% of the demand and 69% of the region’s capacity in 2008. Other major producers of polyethylene in South and Central America include Mexico, Venezuela and Argentina. Other countries have limited demand growth as there is a lack of significant industrial base, which is a major restraint for increased applications of polyethylene. Venezuela has limited polyethylene demand in the absence of a diversified industrial base, but the abundance of crude oil and natural gas makes it a favorable destination for setting up polyethylene capacity. More than 3.5 mln tons of additional capacity is expected to come on-stream in Venezuela by 2015. HDPE accounted for 43% of the South and Central America polyethylene capacity in 2008 and will see more than 3.2 mln tons of capacity additions until 2015. LDPE grade accounted for 24% of the South and Central America polyethylene capacity and a mln tons of additional capacity will be added in the region. LLDPE grade accounted for 33% of the South and Central American capacity and will see nearly 3 mln tons of capacity additions until 2015. In 2015, HDPE will account for 44%, LDPE 20% and LLDPE will account for 36% of the South and Central American installed capacity of 14.6 mln tons.
The United States will see half a mln ton of capacity reduction as a result of demand stagnation and diminishing export markets. However, Canada is expected to drive the North American demand for polyethylene. Also, the natural gas pricing advantage enjoyed by producers in Canada helps the Canadian polyethylene producers vis-à-vis the US producers. An additional 1.5 mln tons of polyethylene capacity is coming up in Canada until 2015. HDPE accounted for 45% of the North American polyethylene capacity in 2008 and will see 0.3 mln tons of capacity additions until 2015. LDPE grade accounted for 17% of the North American polyethylene capacity and 0.2 mln tons of additional capacity will be added in the region. LLDPE grade accounted for 18% of the North American capacity and will see 0.2 mln tons of capacity additions until 2015. In 2015, HDPE will account for 44%, LDPE 18% and LLDPE will account for 38% of the North American installed capacity of 20.8 mln tons. Europe and North America are not expected to add any significant capacity of PE until 2015.
In Europe local demand is expected to remain stagnant and there is considerable overcapacity - there will be small additions in the major producing countries like France, Belgium and the Netherlands. The only exception in the European region is Russia, where an additional 1 mln tons of polyethylene capacity is expected by 2015. Russia is the World's largest exporter of oil & natural gas. It proposes to add capacity of petrochemicals in order to add value to its rich resources of oil & natural gas.HDPE accounted for 45% of European PE capacity in 2008 Only 1 mln tons of HDPE new capacity will be added up to 2015. LDPE, which accounted for 37% of European capacity in 2008, will see no new capacity additions. LLDPE, which makes up 18% of the 2008 production capacity, will see only an additional 0.7 mln tons come available. By 2015, HDPE will account for 46% of the European PE production capacity of 20.8 mln tons, LDPE 34% and LLDPE 20%.
Most of the capacity additions until 2015 will be seen in the Middle East to utilize the benefit of low feedstock costs, and in Asia, particularly China and India where domestic demand is growing very well. The Middle East will also see major polyethylene capacity growth, adding 11.5 mln tons of capacity to 2015. Feedstock benefits and huge market in China will drive the capacity expansion in the Middle Eastern region. Saudi Arabia will add more than 4 mln tons of capacity by 2015, while Iran will add in excess of 5 mln tons. Qatar will add 2 mln tons of new capacity. Iran and Saudi Arabia are the major polyethylene markets in the region.
New polyethylene plants planned for start-up, October 2009
Company Location Grade Capacity ('000 tpa) Startup
Saudi Kayan Saudi Arabia HDPE 400 Q1 2011
Saudi Kayan Saudi Arabia LLDPE 400 Q1 2011
Qatofin Qatar LLDPE 450 End 2010
Borouge 2 UAE HDPE 540 Mid 2010
Borouge 2 UAE LLDPE 650 Mid 2010
Ilam PC Iran HDPE 300 2010
Kermanshah Iran HDPE 300 2010
Lorestan Iran HDPE 300 2010
Kordestan Iran LDPE 300 2011
Mahabad Iran HDPE 300 2011
Sinopec Tianjin China HDPE 300 Online 2009
Sinopec Tianjin China LLDP 300 Online 2009
Sinopec Zhenhai China LLDPE 450 Q2 2010
Baotou Shenhua China PE 300 May 2010
PTT Chemical Thailand LLDPE 400 Online 2009
PTT Chemical Thailand HDPE 300 Online 2009
Siam Cement Thailand HDPE 400 Mar 2010
Siam Cement Thailand LLDPE 350 Mar 2010
Haldia PC India PE 670 Jan 2010
GAIL India HDPE 200 Apr 2010
Indian Oil Corp. India LLDPE Swing with HDPE 350 2012
Indian Oil Corp. India HDPE 300 2012
BPCL India HDPE 220 After 2010
ONGC India HDPE 360 Dec 2012