The global auto market is heading for an all time high, with total 2011 demand predicted near 77 million by J.D. Power and Associates. With the increasing power of the Asian countries and de-emphasizing more established markets, global auto sales will hit an all-time record high, with total global vehicle sales of 76.5 mln, up from last years' record 72 million mark. The real driver behind the record trend is China, along with other emerging markets such as India and Brazil. For the first time, emerging automotive markets accounted for more than half of global light vehicle sales, in 2010, clearly signaling the shift of power in the global automotive market. While that momentum is expected to continue, however, the motor vehicle boom is occurring almost everywhere with clear signals of stability and increased consumer demand around the world. The US market reported an 11% increase in motor vehicle demand in 2010, reaching 11.6 miln. Most analysts expect to see the numbers reach or exceed 12.5 mln this year. China is expected to continue growing at a pace well into the double digits following a 30% jump last year. In fact, December sales would have worked out to an annualized rate of 19 mln vehicles. That has led many to predict the market will become the first ever to see annual sales top 20 million, and barring some significant economic and political problems, that very well could occur in 2011. China's automotive market remained robust in 2010, defying all expectations that the market would slow along with the economy. We expect sales to slow somewhat in 2011, but still maintain double-digit growth. Power noted that India also saw a 30% growth rate last year, though total sales were a more modest 2.7 mln vehicles. South American sales meanwhile jumped about 6%, though the key Brazilian market set a much more aggressive pace.

The US auto industry, long considered the laggard globally, is currently reshaping itself to become more green, transparent, and customer-centric. 2010 holds considerable promise for the embattled region of North America. Dramatic industry restructuring throughout every level of the value chain has delivered most surviving entities to a leaner and more agile state, PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) said in a recent news release.
China was the top car producer in 2009 with a production of 13.79 mln units. It surpassed Japan where domestic automobile production fell to a 33-year low to 7,934,516 units, a 31.5% drop from the previous year. In China, less than five people in 1,000 own a car. Sales should grow by 1 mln vehicles annually until 2015. The number of families that can afford a car is expected to grow from 10 mln in 2005 to 75 mln in 2015. As of 2009, there were 52 foreign and domestic carmakers operating in China, compared to 15 in the United States. Total vehicle production in the EU rose by 15% in the first 9 months of 2010 compared to the same period in 2009, as per European Automobile Manufacturers Association Passenger. Car production increased by 13%, reflecting a drop of 5% in Q3 in correlation with the softening momentum in the global economy. Production levels in the segment of vans expanded in all three quarters of 2010. The segment of trucks started to show signs of recovery only in the second quarter, when production increased by 57%, and continued this trend in the third quarter when new truck registrations also began to be positive again. In the first three quarters of 2010, a total of 12.6 mln motor vehicles were produced in the EU, which is 15% more than over the same period last year. Compared to the pre-crisis level of the first three quarters of 2008, total production was down 14%. New passenger car production in the EU grew in the first half year before contracting by 5% in Q3, in correlation with the drop observed in new registrations. Three quarters into the year, production of cars was up 13% compared to the same period last year, but down 11% compared to the first three quarters of 2008. Production of vans increased throughout the first three quarters of this year. However, compared to the levels of 2008, output levels were still down 29%. Germany remained the largest manufacturing country, both for motor vehicles and passenger cars, the production of which expanded by 15% and 14% respectively. While 36.4% of new cars were produced in Germany, Spain, as well as France, accounted for 12.9%, followed by the UK (8.3%), the Czech Republic (7.1%), Poland (5.7%), Italy (3.9%) and Slovakia (3.6%).
Global light vehicle in 2009 had the lowest production in almost a decade at 57.2 mln, declining by 9 mln since 2002 at 2.5% average negative growth over the last 7 years. As per a report by PwC, North America had a production of 8.6 mln in 2009, expected to reach 10.9 mln in 2010, as the US economy slowly recovers amid low interest rates on vehicle loans. However it may take another 3-4 years before North America reaches the 13-15 mln production mark that existed in 2002.
Vehicle production in the European Union is expected to have declined in 2010 mainly because of the scrappage projects. An end to incentives in Germany will significantly influence overall performance due to an expected fall of 800-900,000 in new car sales yoy. The UK and Italy similarly also face post-scrappage falls. Many smaller markets that were not distorted by scrappage are now exhibiting strength as the economy improves and 18 months of pent-up demand hits. Likewise, light commercial vehicle (LCV) demand shows tentative signs of recovery in some markets, after 18 months of heavy declines. Import of small cars in 2009 will continue in 2010. It is expected that production will be matching sale in 2010. East Europe, particularly Russia, may see some growth in 2010. Turkey may see decline by 10% due to cut in market stimulating tax. Export however may increase resulting in a flat year in Turkey. South America is forecast to have an excellent growth in 2010. The Brazilian market has recovered strongly in 2010 after sluggish 2009. Q1 saw a strong sale due to expiration of tax breaks in automobiles. The sales could slow down after the incentive is withdrawn but the buoyant economy could result in 8% growth in 2010. Argentina also saw a stupendous growth in the first quarter of 2010. It is expected that Argentina would see a very healthy growth due to increase in domestic and export markets. Financial stimulus during 2009 in Japan did not yield better results as the market declined by 9%, but grew in Korea by 20%. However decline in export market saw decline in both the countries. Japan suffered badly with its production going down as low as that of 1976. South Korea also saw a decline of 9% in production due to poor exports. The fast growing economies of China and India had an excellent growth in 2009. China alone produced 9 mln automobiles in 2009, and India saw a growth of 18% in production in 2009. Both these countries are expected to have excellent 2010 backed by economic growth.